The Earth’s climate is now further out of balance than at any point in recorded history, according to the United Nations’ (UN) weather agency. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reports that the planet is absorbing significantly more heat energy than it releases, largely due to emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.
This growing energy imbalance contributed to record ocean temperatures last year and accelerated the melting of ice caps. Scientists warn that the anticipated onset of an El Niño phase later this year could drive temperatures even higher and lead to further records being made.
Recent data highlights the scale of warming. The past 11 years have been the warmest since records began in 1850. In 2025, global average air temperatures were approximately 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels. Although a temporary La Niña phase moderated temperatures slightly compared with 2024, last year still ranked among the three warmest years on record. Scientists increasingly believe that warming is accelerating, though it remains broadly consistent with long-term projections.
The WMO identifies the accumulation of excess heat energy in the Earth system as a key measure of climate change, with this imbalance reaching a new high last year. While the precise mechanisms behind the recent increase in stored heat are still under investigation, there is clear consensus that greenhouse gases from human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion, are the primary cause. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are currently at their highest in at least two million years.
Much of this excess energy is absorbed by the oceans, which take up more than 90% of it. This contributes to ocean warming, damages marine ecosystems, intensifies storms and drives sea-level rise.
Looking ahead, scientists are closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean, where forecasts suggest a warming El Niño phase could develop in the second half of 2026. Combined with ongoing human-driven warming, this could push global temperatures to new highs into 2027.
The WMO warns that human activity is increasingly disrupting the planet’s natural equilibrium, with consequences that could persist for hundreds to thousands of years.